Syrians Returning Home Amid Hope and Challenges

The Syrian scene is undergoing a remarkable transformation, as Syrian refugees begin returning to their homeland following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime. This step reflects their aspirations for a new life, despite looming economic and living challenges.

Statistics indicate that approximately 40,000 citizens have returned from Turkey since December 8, along with about 18,000 from Jordan and 10,000 from Lebanon. These figures signal the start of a long-anticipated wave of return, as Syrians come back with hopes of rebuilding their homeland.

Host countries, however, are increasingly concerned about the economic repercussions of this transformation, as the loss of Syrian labor could significantly impact sectors heavily dependent on refugee contributions.

Return of Syrian Migrants from Turkey

The wave of voluntary returns from Turkey is gaining momentum, with tens of thousands of refugees packing their bags to return home. According to the Turkish Immigration Authority, five crossings have been designated to facilitate the return process for Syrians holding temporary protection cards (Kimlik). Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat reported that about 40,000 refugees have returned to Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8.

Although this number is relatively small compared to the more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, experts agree that the return of Syrians could have widespread economic implications. Syrian labor has become vital in operating key sectors like textiles, agriculture, and real estate, while also contributing to increased production and exports.

Bakir Atagan, head of the Istanbul Center for Strategic Studies, noted the Turkish government’s delicate balancing act between addressing calls for the voluntary return of Syrians and preserving the skilled labor and scientific talent that have bolstered the Turkish economy. Atagan predicts that the economic impact of these changes will become evident after the school year ends, with an estimated one million Syrians expected to return in the coming year, potentially causing radical shifts in markets and consumption patterns.

Regarding international aid to Turkey for hosting Syrian refugees, Atagan questioned the widely cited $10 billion figure, suggesting that this amount, approved by donor countries or the European Union, might not have been fully disbursed to the Turkish government.

Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

Lebanon is experiencing a heated debate over the Syrian refugee crisis. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has called for accelerating the return of Syrians to their homeland, highlighting that refugees constitute about one-third of Lebanon’s population. During a symposium in Rome, Mikati urged the international community, particularly Europe, to contribute to economic recovery efforts in safe areas of Syria to encourage returns.

Lebanon hosts about two million Syrian refugees—an enormous burden for a country with a population of 5.8 million. Many refugees entered illegally across land borders. However, Lebanon has also seen a reverse flow of loyalists fleeing Syria out of fear of reprisal.

Despite calls to return, many refugees are hesitant due to security concerns and the destruction of their homes. Nawal, a refugee living in Lebanon since the revolution, dreams of returning but cannot do so because her home in Aleppo is destroyed and she lacks alternative shelter. Ahmed, another refugee, shares a strong desire to return but is hindered by economic challenges, saying, “I do not want to return and find myself unable to secure my children’s basic needs.”

Lebanon faces a complex situation where economic and social considerations intersect with local and international pressures. The stability of Syria’s economy and infrastructure remains crucial for encouraging refugees to return.

Syrian Refugees in Jordan

Jordan, hosting 1.3 million Syrian refugees, faces immense economic and infrastructural challenges. Despite difficult living conditions, recent weeks have seen the return of thousands of Syrians. Jordanian Interior Minister Mazen Faraya reported that about 18,000 refugees returned from Jordan to Syria in December 2024.

However, the Jordanian government is increasingly concerned about declining international funding for its refugee response plans. The Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation indicated that funding requirements total $22.1 billion, with a deficit of $11.8 billion. Funding for the 2024 plan, estimated at $2 billion, is the lowest since the crisis began in 2015.

Syrian refugees in Jordan face poverty rates exceeding 67%, compounded by limited job opportunities and a national unemployment rate of 21.5%. The continued decline in international support threatens to worsen the humanitarian crisis, both for refugees and the host community.

The return of Syrian refugees reflects significant transformations in the region but also presents major challenges for host countries. Balancing the needs of refugees with the economic impact on host nations requires coordinated international efforts to stabilize Syria and support reconstruction. Comprehensive strategies are essential to address these pressing issues and ensure the safe and dignified return of refugees to their homeland.